Cold calculations: The future of Arctic security and the role of

The Arctic has become increasingly relevant for the Netherlands and its citizens. Climate change and shifting geopolitical dynamics are reshaping the region. As the Arctic ice retreats, new maritime routes – potentially faster and more efficient than existing shipping lanes – are emerging, while access to vital resources such as oil, gas, critical raw materials, and rare earth elements is gradually expanding. At the same time, the military interest in the use of the Arctic region is increasing, also as a result of the Russian war against Ukraine. These developments directly affect global trade, environmental stability, and international security – all areas that touch upon Dutch interests and daily life, from economic growth and energy supply to digital infrastructure and climate resilience, and to stability and security in Northern Europe. 

For a trading nation like the Netherlands, which relies heavily on secure and open sea routes, developments in the Arctic have significant implications. The Northern Sea Route (NSR), if opened further, could shorten shipping times between Europe and Asia, thereby impacting Dutch ports and logistics hubs. However, this potential gain is balanced by broader strategic concerns. As access increases, so too does geopolitical competition, with major powers reinforcing their military presence in the region. Therefore, considering the upcoming review of the Netherlands’ Polar Strategy (2021-2025), this report aims to contribute to this task by analysing the most prominent Arctic security challenges, opportunities and interests of the Netherlands.

Authors:

Karen van Loon - Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Ben Bekkering - Senior Research Associate at the Clingendael Institute

Youri Verschoor - Researcher at the Clingendael Institute

Dick Zandee - Programme Lead Security & Defence / Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute