Far Seas, Hard Choices

Aligning Ambitious European Objectives with Capabilities and Coalitions for the Indo-Pacific

Europe faces hard choices in its security; a clear example of these choices pertains to the role European navies and other military assets can and should play in the Indo-Pacific. The Indo-Pacific has become the centre of gravity for both the global economy and geopolitics. Specifically, the intensifying Sino-American competition has made it the region where the future of US hegemony and hegemonic order will be decided. China is presenting both a challenge to the legal order in the Western Indian Ocean, specifically towards Taiwan and the South China Sea, as well as a challenge to US military hegemony. Demands on Europeans to strengthen maritime security are increasing. The Euro-Asian supply chain is the most significant on the planet, but insecure. The ease with which the Iran-backed Houthi group was able to disrupt global maritime trade at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 was telling.

This brief explores why and how different coalitions of European military forces can form and deploy to the Indo-Pacific. It explores the trade-offs faced by European states as they seek both partners within Europe and in the region and the respective impacts these choices make on the military and economic dynamics of the region. First, we explore the varying objectives European states are exploring in the Indo-Pacific, relative to regional and international perspectives (namely China, select regional states, and the United States). Second, we review the positions of regional states in greater detail with an aim towards informing possible coalition formations. Third, the specific naval tasks that European states have indicated a desire to perform are broken down in greater detail, specifically in relation to the availability of actual capabilities. Finally, these three sections combine into a theoretical exploration of possible coalitions of European and Indo-Pacific states and their likely impacts on relations with China and on regional stability.

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Authors

Davis Ellison - Strategic analyst at HCSS and chair of the HCSS Initiative on the Future of Transatlantic Relations

Benedetta Girardi - Strategic analyst at HCSS and principal researcher for the HCSS ‘Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub’

Laura Jasper - Strategic Analyst at HCSS