Twilight of Atlanticism? America’s shifting approaches to Europe

New HCSS report highlights decline in U.S. commitment to European security. Major shift in Transatlantic Relations could impact NATO, EU, and European defence policy.

A shift in U.S. attention towards Europe is looming. This attention, itself only a result of the Biden administration’s focus on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has been long in coming and is deeply connected to the domestic politics of the U.S. and the international structure.

This new HCSS report by strategic analyst Davis Ellison and Paul van Hooft outlines how the U.S. is facing new and competing global priorities, particularly in relation to the rise of China and its impact on American foreign policy. As the U.S. government seeks to manage its resources across multiple fronts—Europe, Asia, and the Middle East—American leaders are signalling a reduced focus on European security. This shift is not limited to the current Biden administration but is part of a broader, long-term trend of changing priorities that may affect Europe’s reliance on U.S. defence guarantees.

The report also identifies four approaches to U.S. foreign policy: the liberal internationalists, prioritisers, restrainers, and MAGA/American First-ers. Each of these has experienced an evolution in thinking over the past decade, but a decidedly common theme is a reduction in the instinctual prioritisation of Europe in American foreign policy.

Conclusion: a call for European self-reliance in security

This new HCSS report concludes that the days of relying on the U.S. as the primary guarantor of European security may be coming to an end. The transatlantic partnership will not disappear overnight, but significant changes are underway. Europe must prepare for a future where it will play a much larger role in its own defence and security affairs.

Authors:

Davis Ellison - Strategic analyst at HCSS

Paul van Hooft - Research Leader Defence and Security RAND Europe

With contributions from Julia Döll and Giulio Damiani