The Global Security Pulse (GSP) tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide, allowing you to stay ahead in new security developments. This month we present novel developments and must-reads on hybrid conflict. 

Our research suggests that the international security environment is increasingly characterized by hybrid strategies that fall under military, political, economic, information, and cyber domains. Hybrid threats are characterized by their complexity, ambiguity, multidimensional nature, and gradual impact, making them difficult for states to effectively respond to and posing a significant challenge to the international order. Whilst hybrid tactics in and of themselves are not entirely new, the availability of diverse and sophisticated (technological) tools is enhancing the impact, reach, and congruence of these strategies. This aspect, paired with states’ unprecedented aversion to engage in conventional war due to nuclear, economic and political deterrence, and recent shifts in global power means that hybrid conflict constitutes an increasingly desirable strategy to achieve political goals.

Authors

Bianca Torossian, Tara Görder, Lucas Fagliano (HCSS)

Contributors: Tim Sweijs, Hugo van Manen, Dylan Browne-Wilkinson (HCSS), Danny Pronk (Clingendael)

Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Weapons

The Global Security Pulse (GSP) tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide, allowing you to stay ahead in new security developments. 

The fourth Global Security Pulse of 2019 focuses on Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Weapons, or CBRN Weapons. These are often labelled as Weapons of Mass Destruction, although especially radiological weapons could better be considered as Weapons of Mass Disruption, as they will generally not be able to cause massive destruction but merely chaos and panic.

An important characteristic of CBRN weapons is that the specific materials to develop them are dual-use; with a few exceptions, materials required to build CBRN weapons can also be used for peaceful purposes. To prevent that any CBRN dual use material would be considered as weapon material, this Global Security Pulse uses a broadened version of the so-called General Purpose Criterion of the Chemical Weapons Convention: “A CBRN Weapon is CBRN material used to cause intentional death or harm through its CBRN properties.” Munitions, devices and other equipment specifically designed to weaponize CBRN materials also fall under the definition of chemical weapons.

Building upon previous Strategic Foresight publications on CBRN Weapons, we have looked for new and/or important signals regarding these weapons in relation to five key topics: proliferation, modernization of weapons, escalation potential, international CBRN regimes, and non-state actor access. In addition, we have scanned for new and/or important signals that can tell us something about the status of and developments with regard to the international order regarding CBRN weapons, especially concerning international norms and rules.

Read more Global Security Pulses.

Authors

Danny Pronk, Sico van der Meer and Kevin Raat (Clingendael Institute)

Contributors: Tim Sweijs and Patrick Bolder (HCSS)

Danny Pronk and Sico van der Meer are one of the trainers of our 8-day course International Security from 23 October until 1 November. Go to Training Course International Security.

Global Security Pulse: Conflict in Cyberspace

The Global Security Pulse (GSP) tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide, allowing you to stay ahead in new security developments. This month we present novel developments and must-reads on international peace and security in cyberspace. Conflict between states are taking new forms, with cyber operations taking a leading role. In recent years, the risk of a major cyber exchange between nation states, has often been described as a major threat in national security incidents. While this dire outlook is partially connected to the overall level of geopolitical tension, there is a significant concern that the ability of governments to successfully manage the threat of major conflict is hampered as they only make up one of three actor groups in the overall cyberspace regime complex.

The GSP is a product made in collaboration with The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS). It uses an advanced horizon-scanning methodology which involves a systematic scan of literature, conferences, twitter, and validated expert input. The GSP product is based on the Clingendael Radar and has been further developed by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and the Clingendael Institute. It is part of the Strategic Monitor Program which receives funding from the Dutch Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense.

Read more Global Security Pulses.

Authors

Louk Faesen, Bianca Torossian, Carlo Zensus (HCSS).

Contributors: Tim Sweijs, Hugo van Manen (HCSS), Danny Pronk (Clingendael)

Global Security Pulse: Economic Security

The Global Security Pulse (GSP) allows you to spot new security developments ahead of the curve. This month we present novel and important developments and must-reads on economic security. The topics include foreign takeovers and investments, trade espionage, security of energy supply and more. The fast-changing and increasingly complex geopolitical context has led to extra attention being focused on these issues.

The GSP is a collaborative product between the Clingendael Institute and The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. It is based on Clingendael’s horizon-scan methodology which involves a systematic scan of literature, conferences, twitter and validated expert input (see our Radar Series). It is part of our Strategic Monitor Programme. 

The GSP is accompanied by a methodology paper that explains and justifies the underlying (methodological) choices and reflects upon the process.

Read more Global Security Pulses.

Authors

Minke Meijnders and Merel Martens (Clingendael)

Contributors: Hugo van Manen, Paul Sinning (HCSS), Maaike Okano-Heijmans and Danny Pronk (Clingendael)

Stilte voor de Storm?
Auteurs: Kars de Bruijne, Minke Mijnders (Instituut Clingendael)
Stephan de Spiegeleire, Frank Bekkers,Tim Sweijs (HCSS)

In de Strategische Monitor 2017-2018 is opnieuw een verscheidenheid aan methodes gebruikt om de ontwikkelingen in de internationale orde te monitoren en te duiden. Deze orde blijkt weerbaarder voor spanningen dan vaak wordt gedacht, en Nederland blijft goed gepositioneerd in dit internationale krachtenveld. De afgelopen vijf jaar gedroegen de grote mogendheden zich assertiever, echter in 2017 was een meer afwachtende houding waar te nemen. Dit is wellicht te verklaren door de onvoorspelbare houding van de regering Trump. Er lijkt dus ondanks alle internationale spanningen sprake van een relatieve strategische luwte. Of is dit slechts een stilte voor de storm?