An initial inquiry

This Policy Brief explores the status of Global Gateway’s digital projects and initiatives, and identifies four digital strengths through which the Netherlands can contribute to this EU initiative. The Netherlands boasts remarkable economic strength and a strong track record in developing innovative solutions in AgriTech, FinTech, Cybersecurity and Data Centres. Enhanced engagement with emerging economies in these four fields will serve not only partner countries’ development, but will also contribute to the competitiveness of European companies and the spread of liberal norms such as openness, transparency and privacy in the digital domain. As such, Dutch contributions to the digital Global Gateway will contribute to concrete and useful solutions for partner countries that harness digitalisation for sustainable and secure economic development. Second, they will unlock new markets for Dutch companies operating in these sectors. Finally, they will strengthen the EU’s value proposition to third countries, complementing the current Global Gateway focus on hard infrastructure.

The authors

Alexandre Ferreira Gomes, Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Maaike Okano-Heijmans, Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Foresight on the possible futures of the Russian Federation

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is by now not only existential for Ukraine. It also seems to have become existential for Vladmir Putin’s regime itself, which equates its own security and continuity with Russia’s national security. How the war ends will be an important factor that shapes the future of the Russian Federation. The inverse is also true: whether or not the Russian regime remains stable is also a key factor that determines when and how the war ends. Russia’s future will furthermore shape the broader European security architecture – and vice versa.

To help policymakers prepare for what might lie ahead, this report draws up a model consisting of 35 variables that will together shape Russia’s future – based on an extensive literature review and scenario workshop with Dutch and international experts. It then builds on this model to construct a scenario framework for the next five years. These scenarios take into account (1) to what extent the Russian regime could change or persist, (2) to what extent this would be accompanied by large-scale instability and violence, and (3) to what extent a future Russian government would pursue confrontation or rapprochement with the West. The report then puts forward six scenarios based on these variables and presuppositions

The authors

Bob Deen, Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Niels Drost, Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Milou Carstens, Research Intern at the Clingendael Institute

Work in Progress: Ukraine’s State-Civil Partnership to Reform the Security Sector

This report analyses the changing role of Ukrainian civil society by investigating seven examples of key reforms of the security sector and puts forward recommendations for Ukraine’s international partners regarding their cooperation with Ukrainian civil society organisations (CSOs).

The authors

Julia Soldatiuk-Westerveld, Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Bob Deen, Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

The EU and Ukraine: Towards a new security and defence relationship

The war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the European security environment. The EU and its member states are committed to supporting Ukraine in its self-defence in the long-term. In recent years, the EU has become an important actor in the security area, complementary to NATO, which carries out collective defence as its core task. This raises the question of how the EU-Ukraine relationship in security and defence should be shaped. This policy brief aims to provide answers to that question. The authors firstly assess how the war in Ukraine has impacted on the EU and NATO. The next section explores the options for enhancing the EU-Ukrainian security and defence relationship. The final section is devoted to EU-NATO cooperation on assisting Ukraine on its way to future membership of both organisations. Conclusions and recommendations complete this policy brief.

The authors

Dick Zandee, Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Mik Dijkman, Junior Researcher at the Clingendael Institute

Paper series - Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub

Why should Europe guard the Indo-Pacific maritime commons: Order, Access, or US hegemony?

E uropeans face difficult choices in the Indo-Pacific as the Sino-American competition intensifies and the multilateral order that protects the freedom of the seas is under threat. In this brief we argue that Europeans need to more clearly formulate their objectives and develop policies based on a realistic view of their capabilities before embarking on a long-term commitment.

The authors

Paul van Hooft & Tim Sweijs - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)

This Clingendael report explores the role of the Russian Federation in Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. It examines Russia’s objectives in its relations with the three countries, as well the various sources of influence the Kremlin holds in each of the three countries. The report places this analysis within the changed geopolitical circumstances resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The authors

Wouter Zweers, Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Niels Drost, Junior Researcher at the Clingendael Institute

Baptiste Henry, Research Assistant at the Clingendael Institute

Paper series - Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub

A Man-of-War is the Best Ambassador: European Naval Deployments as Costly and Useful Diplomatic Signals

By the slow-moving standards of international diplomacy, the relatively recent term “Indo-Pacific” has gone viral. Conceived as a hopeful expansion of Japanese strategic aims and adopted by the Trump Administration for its increasingly confrontational approach to China, multiple European states have now developed “Indo-Pacific” strategies.

This brief argues that even modest navies—almost uniquely among foreign policy tools— can effectively perform diplomacy when used thoughtfully and judiciously by civilian political leaders.

Paper series - Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub

The French Strategy for the Indo-Pacific and the issue of European cooperation

P resident Macron’s speech at the Garden Island naval base in Australia in May 2018 was a major milestone towards the integration of the Indo-Pacific concept in the French national and international policies. France’s orientation in the Indo-Pacific region is therefore consistent with its global strategy: to act as a balancing power able to promote stability and peace in the context of growing tensions and global re-armament.

The authors

Nicolas Mazzucchi

Edited by Paul van Hooft - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)

Paper series - Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub

The EU’s Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific: What Is It Worth?

Recent years have seen an unprecedent concentration of European interest – and warships – in the Indo-Pacific. This development reflects the growing ambition of Brussels to contribute to the volatile regional maritime security environment, marked by an increasing naval build-up, China’s maritime expansionism and lasting sovereignty disputes. What has been the scope and focus of their presence and to what effect?

This paper looks at the rationales and specificities of the naval deployments of France, Germany and the Netherlands in the Indo-Pacific in the context of Brussels’ recent official tilt towards the region in 2021.

Paper series - Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub

Towards a Sustainable and Meaningful European Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific Region: A Southeast Asian Perspective

2021 was a bumper harvest year for European naval presence in the Indo-Pacific. Given the extant uncertainties surrounding the war in Ukraine that could cast doubts in the Indo-Pacific about the durability of this presence, this paper proposes maintaining the status quo of European powers flying their national flags while representing a general form of European naval presence in the Indo-Pacific at least for the time being.

The authors

Collin Koh

Edited by Paul van Hooft - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)