Moldova’s counter-hybrid campaigns have been a “learning by doing exercise”, writes guest author Anastasia Pociumban in this new HCSS paper, providing an empirical review of Moldova’s response to hybrid threats, which significantly increased following Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.

The authors

Anastasia Pociumban - German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) 

In reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian government stood up a variety of digital services and volunteer groups to counter Russia’s aggression in and through cyberspace. This paper by guest author Stefan Soesanto, Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich, focuses on two Ukrainian hybrid warfare creations and their activities within the period from February 2022 to July 2023: The IT Army of Ukraine (IT-армія України) which are conducting DDoS and destructive cyber operations in and through the cyber domain, and the Internet Force of Ukraine (Інтернет Війська України) who are active on the information warfare front.

Authors

Stefan Soesanto - Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies (CSS)

A Dutch case study to bolster European action

The European Union’s Global Gateway investment agenda is gaining traction and political support across the EU bloc, including in the digital domain. This shift in attitude has to be supported by concrete action from member states in identifying their own strengths, as well as local needs in countries of the Global South, as the Netherlands is seeking to do. A key challenge for European players in strengthening their offers to countries of the so-called ‘Global South’ is to know and to act on local needs, engaging with partner countries that also wish to take advantage of the opportunities arising from the digital and data-driven economy. This Policy Brief presents the findings of such a matchmaking exercise, specifically between Dutch digital strengths and local needs in the digital domain in Kenya, Egypt and Vietnam. Hard infrastructure, which is the focus of the EU Global Gateway so far – forms the base of any digital transformation. Building on this, EU member states can offer opportunities in sought-after (sectoral) applications – such as in education, health, agriculture, FinTech or manufacturing – that lay the foundation of an open, inclusive and secure digital domain. Complementing the matchmaking exercise, new (financial) instruments are needed to deliver on the scale of digital needs and interests of partner countries.

Authors

Alexandre Ferreira Gomes, Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Maaike Okano-Heijmans, Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Towards better understanding of local needs

The digital needs and interests of emerging economies in the Global South remain largely obscure to the EU and most EU member states that wish to strengthen engagement in this important domain by way of the Digital Global Gateway. Strengthened engagement with emerging economies will serve partner countries’ development, and at the same time contribute to European companies’ competitiveness and the spread of liberal digital norms such as openness, transparency and privacy. Exploring the digital needs of three partner countries – namely Kenya, Vietnam and Egypt – this Policy Brief highlights areas for cooperation. A key basic need is hard infrastructure, to which the EU Global Gateway investments are now starting to respond. In order to reap the full benefits of such infrastructure, partner countries are also keen to cooperate on cybersecurity solutions, improving digital skills and digitising micro, small and medium enterprises. Equally important are sectoral solutions – such as in agriculture, digital finance, public transportation, e-government, education and health – that help emerging economies to develop in a secure, inclusive enabling digital environment.

Authors

Alexandre Ferreira Gomes, Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Maaike Okano-Heijmans, Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

An initial inquiry

This Policy Brief explores the status of Global Gateway’s digital projects and initiatives, and identifies four digital strengths through which the Netherlands can contribute to this EU initiative. The Netherlands boasts remarkable economic strength and a strong track record in developing innovative solutions in AgriTech, FinTech, Cybersecurity and Data Centres. Enhanced engagement with emerging economies in these four fields will serve not only partner countries’ development, but will also contribute to the competitiveness of European companies and the spread of liberal norms such as openness, transparency and privacy in the digital domain. As such, Dutch contributions to the digital Global Gateway will contribute to concrete and useful solutions for partner countries that harness digitalisation for sustainable and secure economic development. Second, they will unlock new markets for Dutch companies operating in these sectors. Finally, they will strengthen the EU’s value proposition to third countries, complementing the current Global Gateway focus on hard infrastructure.

The authors

Alexandre Ferreira Gomes, Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Maaike Okano-Heijmans, Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Foresight on the possible futures of the Russian Federation

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is by now not only existential for Ukraine. It also seems to have become existential for Vladmir Putin’s regime itself, which equates its own security and continuity with Russia’s national security. How the war ends will be an important factor that shapes the future of the Russian Federation. The inverse is also true: whether or not the Russian regime remains stable is also a key factor that determines when and how the war ends. Russia’s future will furthermore shape the broader European security architecture – and vice versa.

To help policymakers prepare for what might lie ahead, this report draws up a model consisting of 35 variables that will together shape Russia’s future – based on an extensive literature review and scenario workshop with Dutch and international experts. It then builds on this model to construct a scenario framework for the next five years. These scenarios take into account (1) to what extent the Russian regime could change or persist, (2) to what extent this would be accompanied by large-scale instability and violence, and (3) to what extent a future Russian government would pursue confrontation or rapprochement with the West. The report then puts forward six scenarios based on these variables and presuppositions

The authors

Bob Deen, Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Niels Drost, Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Milou Carstens, Research Intern at the Clingendael Institute

Work in Progress: Ukraine’s State-Civil Partnership to Reform the Security Sector

This report analyses the changing role of Ukrainian civil society by investigating seven examples of key reforms of the security sector and puts forward recommendations for Ukraine’s international partners regarding their cooperation with Ukrainian civil society organisations (CSOs).

The authors

Julia Soldatiuk-Westerveld, Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Bob Deen, Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

The EU and Ukraine: Towards a new security and defence relationship

The war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the European security environment. The EU and its member states are committed to supporting Ukraine in its self-defence in the long-term. In recent years, the EU has become an important actor in the security area, complementary to NATO, which carries out collective defence as its core task. This raises the question of how the EU-Ukraine relationship in security and defence should be shaped. This policy brief aims to provide answers to that question. The authors firstly assess how the war in Ukraine has impacted on the EU and NATO. The next section explores the options for enhancing the EU-Ukrainian security and defence relationship. The final section is devoted to EU-NATO cooperation on assisting Ukraine on its way to future membership of both organisations. Conclusions and recommendations complete this policy brief.

The authors

Dick Zandee, Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Mik Dijkman, Junior Researcher at the Clingendael Institute

Paper series - Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub

Why should Europe guard the Indo-Pacific maritime commons: Order, Access, or US hegemony?

E uropeans face difficult choices in the Indo-Pacific as the Sino-American competition intensifies and the multilateral order that protects the freedom of the seas is under threat. In this brief we argue that Europeans need to more clearly formulate their objectives and develop policies based on a realistic view of their capabilities before embarking on a long-term commitment.

The authors

Paul van Hooft & Tim Sweijs - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)

This Clingendael report explores the role of the Russian Federation in Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. It examines Russia’s objectives in its relations with the three countries, as well the various sources of influence the Kremlin holds in each of the three countries. The report places this analysis within the changed geopolitical circumstances resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The authors

Wouter Zweers, Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Niels Drost, Junior Researcher at the Clingendael Institute

Baptiste Henry, Research Assistant at the Clingendael Institute