A Man-of-War is the Best Ambassador

Submitted by Inge on Tue, 09/05/2023 - 11:23

Paper series - Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub

A Man-of-War is the Best Ambassador: European Naval Deployments as Costly and Useful Diplomatic Signals

By the slow-moving standards of international diplomacy, the relatively recent term “Indo-Pacific” has gone viral. Conceived as a hopeful expansion of Japanese strategic aims and adopted by the Trump Administration for its increasingly confrontational approach to China, multiple European states have now developed “Indo-Pacific” strategies.

This brief argues that even modest navies—almost uniquely among foreign policy tools— can effectively perform diplomacy when used thoughtfully and judiciously by civilian political leaders.

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HCSS

The French Strategy for the Indo-Pacific

Submitted by Inge on Mon, 09/04/2023 - 11:13

Paper series - Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub

The French Strategy for the Indo-Pacific and the issue of European cooperation

P resident Macron’s speech at the Garden Island naval base in Australia in May 2018 was a major milestone towards the integration of the Indo-Pacific concept in the French national and international policies. France’s orientation in the Indo-Pacific region is therefore consistent with its global strategy: to act as a balancing power able to promote stability and peace in the context of growing tensions and global re-armament.

 

The authors

Nicolas Mazzucchi

Edited by Paul van Hooft - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)

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HCSS

The EU’s Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific

Submitted by Inge on Sun, 09/03/2023 - 11:08

Paper series - Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub

The EU’s Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific: What Is It Worth?

Recent years have seen an unprecedent concentration of European interest – and warships – in the Indo-Pacific. This development reflects the growing ambition of Brussels to contribute to the volatile regional maritime security environment, marked by an increasing naval build-up, China’s maritime expansionism and lasting sovereignty disputes. What has been the scope and focus of their presence and to what effect?

This paper looks at the rationales and specificities of the naval deployments of France, Germany and the Netherlands in the Indo-Pacific in the context of Brussels’ recent official tilt towards the region in 2021.

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HCSS

A Southeast Asian Perspective

Submitted by Inge on Sun, 09/03/2023 - 10:42

Paper series - Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub

Towards a Sustainable and Meaningful European Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific Region: A Southeast Asian Perspective

2021 was a bumper harvest year for European naval presence in the Indo-Pacific. Given the extant uncertainties surrounding the war in Ukraine that could cast doubts in the Indo-Pacific about the durability of this presence, this paper proposes maintaining the status quo of European powers flying their national flags while representing a general form of European naval presence in the Indo-Pacific at least for the time being.

 

The authors

Collin Koh

Edited by Paul van Hooft - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)

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HCSS

Arms Control and Deterrence: The Euromissiles, Then and Now

Submitted by Inge on Sun, 09/03/2023 - 10:28

Paper series - Strategic Stability: Deterrence and Arms Control

Arms Control and Deterrence: The Euromissiles, Then and Now

The prospects for meaningful arms control negotiations seem slim these days. In recent years, commentators have speculated widely about the decline of arms control in international politics. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, widening the war first launched in 2014, has only exacerbated this sense of pessimism about the future of arms control.

Looking to the past can help us consider the advantages and potential risks resulting from this broad approach. Revisiting the history of NATO’s struggles over the Euromissiles – the theater nuclear forces (TNF) or intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) deployed in Europe during the late Cold War – can shed light on some of the basic dilemmas and difficulties facing arms control and deterrence today. With that in mind, what follows highlights four central takeaways from the history of the Euromissiles before turning to reflect on the similarities and differences between then and now.

 

The authors

Susan Colbourn

Edited by Paul van Hooft - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)

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HCSS

Dancing in the Dark

Submitted by Inge on Sun, 09/03/2023 - 10:02

Dancing in the Dark: The Seven Sins of Deterrence Assessment

Although the logic of deterrence and its real-world applications may appear intuitively simple and elegant, measuring its effectiveness is much more challenging. When it comes to deterrence, deterrence policymakers can in fact be likened to dancers in the dark: they may know their own deterrence moves, but they can only surmise what the intentions of their counterparts are, and how their deterrence measures shape adversarial behaviour. For analysts of deterrence, this leads to a host of empirical, theoretical, and methodological challenges.

Robust assessment and evaluation of deterrence policies are of paramount importance to improve the effectiveness of policies going forward. Addressing the seven sins of deterrence analysis by heeding the maxims listed in this report will increase the validity of deterrence assessments and provide analysts and policymakers with a toolkit to improve their evaluation of deterrence strategies.

 

The Authors

Tim Sweijs & Mattia Bertolini - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)

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HCSS

Assessing the Royal Navy’s presence in the Indo-Pacific

Submitted by Inge on Sat, 09/02/2023 - 10:36

Paper series - Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub

Tailored, tokenistic, or too much? Assessing the Royal Navy’s presence in the Indo-Pacific

The war in Ukraine has raised fresh doubts over the will and ability of European states to play a meaningful role in the Indo-Pacific. This paper explores the rationale and efficacy of small or token defence deployments – with a specific focus on the defence component of the Indo-Pacific tilt.

 

The authors

William D. James 

Edited by Paul van Hooft - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)

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HCSS

Nuclear Command and Control and Strategic Stability

Submitted by Inge on Sat, 09/02/2023 - 10:19

Paper series - Strategic Stability: Deterrence and Arms Control

Strategic stability refers to the ability of states to interact during crises without escalating diplomatic and conventional military disputes to the use of nuclear weapons. This essay evaluates the effects of nuclear command and control systems on strategic stability in crisis scenarios. The essay argues that states with command and control systems that delegate the ability to use nuclear weapons to lower-level commanders early in a crisis create conditions that endanger strategic stability and risk unintended nuclear escalation. Concerningly, such nuclear command and control arrangements increase the likelihood that nuclear weapons are used in conflict, even if neither side in a crisis formally crosses an established red line beforehand. This study defines the concept of nuclear command and control, details the challenges that command and control systems pose for strategic stability, identifies challenges to strategic stability in Europe and East Asia, and discusses opportunities for policymakers to reinforce strategic stability in those regions. Although nuclear command and control systems are difficult to shape directly, policymakers can promote strategic stability by engaging in near-term efforts to strengthen nuclear deterrence and long-term efforts to achieve limited arms control agreements between countries.

 

The authors

Giles David Arceneaux

Edited by Paul van Hooft - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)

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HCSS

Future European Contributions to Arms Control

Submitted by Inge on Sat, 09/02/2023 - 10:14

Paper series - Strategic Stability: Deterrence and Arms Control

Future European Contributions to Arms Control: Compete to Negotiate

Increasing violence by revisionist regimes in China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea is breaking the current arms control regime. European countries can best respond to this challenge by leaning into military technical competition in the short term to produce better arms control results over the longer term. Effective military-technical competition serves to reinforce deterrence as a prerequisite to negotiations; incentivise adversaries to negotiate seriously and make meaningful concessions; and compel rivals to abide by agreements once concluded. European countries should consider how they can best stand with other law-abiding nations around the world to compete more effectively in military technology and structure future negotiations with an eye towards restraining violent revisionist challenges.

 

The authors

John D. Maurer

Edited by Paul van Hooft - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)

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HCSS

Unravelling Turkish involvement in the Sahel

Submitted by Inge on Fri, 07/28/2023 - 15:51

In the past decade, Turkey has significantly expanded its engagement in Africa, leading to concerns within the European Union (EU) that this influence might be used to undermine EU policy and member states. This policy brief analyses the strategic motives and evolution of Turkish involvement in the Sahel region, focusing specifically on Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Drawing from interviews conducted with Sahelian and Turkish political, business, diplomatic and educational stakeholders between October and December 2022, the authors contend that Turkey’s foreign policy in the Sahel demonstrates a multifaceted approach that aims to strengthen its presence across economic, cultural, defence and development spheres. However, it is also emphasised that Turkey’s engagement in the Sahel remains relatively limited when compared to its activities in other African countries, for example Libya, Somalia and Algeria. In light of these findings, this policy brief recommends that the EU adopt a pragmatic approach, drawing lessons from Turkey’s strategy while trying to manage, and where possible benefit from, the impact of Turkish security assistance and to foster opportunities for Sahelian populations in Europe through scholarships and employment initiatives.

As a disclaimer, this research was carried out shortly before political unrest rose in Niger in late July 2023, including the conducting of all interviews. Therefore, the information related to Niger in this work is based on the previous period.

 

The authors

Andrew Lebovich, Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

Nienke van Heukelingen, Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute

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